Dollar on track for weekly gain as traders eye Iran talks, US jobs data

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed on Friday ahead of the ‌U.S. monthly payrolls report, but remained on track for a weekly gain against major peers as uncertainty over a possible Iran peace deal buoyed the U.S. currency's safe-haven appeal.

The closely watched payrolls report (USNFAR=ECI), could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path as markets assess the ​possibility of another interest rate hike.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 80,000 last month after ​an increase of 57,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment ⁠rate (USUNR=ECI), is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

"It is all about payrolls today," Nick Rees, head of macro research at ​Monex Europe, said, noting there could be a "modest" dollar selloff if the report comes in softer than expected.

The dollar index — ​which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, including the euro, yen and sterling — was a touch lower at 99.926, but up just over 0.1% for the week, following a 1.6% drop the previous week.

The greenback traded around 0.1% lower at 158.29 yen , ​after gaining 0.4% on Thursday.

That kept the dollar-yen pair on course to rise almost 0.5% this week, as it recovered ​from a bout of joint Japan-U.S. intervention that sent it tumbling from near a four-decade high above 163 to a 13-week low ‌of 155.20 ⁠on Monday.

Against the euro , the dollar was steady at $1.1528, while sterling dipped 0.13% to $1.3434.

Tensions remained elevated in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia expects coordinated attacks by Iraqi militias from the north and Yemen's Houthis from the south under the supervision of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, a senior Saudi official said.

At the same time, investors were weighing signs that Gulf states and Iran were ​moving closer to a temporary agreement ​to reopen the Strait ⁠of Hormuz and pave the way for broader talks aimed at ending the war.

Brent crude was last down 0.7% at $81.9 per barrel.

Inflation concerns have weighed on U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields ​higher.

"USD was supported by higher oil prices (following) news that a deal between the U.S. and ​Iran to reopen ⁠the strait is further away than hoped," Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.

She and other analysts also pointed to a Financial Times report citing sources close to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that referred to the potential for a ⁠September rate ​hike, depending on incoming data — though Clifton added: "We expect the Fed ​to wait until December before starting a modest tightening cycle."

A divided U.S. central bank left rates unchanged last month, but Warsh said he was committed ​to bringing inflation down.

Reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Sophie Kiderlin in London. Editing by Andrew Heavens and Mark Potter

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