Bitcoin breaks above resistance but remains below the key TBO level
Bitcoin closed above its bearish pennant resistance line on Thursday, but the move has not yet changed the broader caution around the chart. The key issue is that BTC still has not closed above TBO Support/Resistance just under $64,000, which keeps the bounce in the category of a reaction rather than a confirmed reversal.
The short-term level to watch is $61,800. A close below that level would signal a loss of short-term support, although the analysis notes that Friday and weekend conditions may slow the move unless another Sunday pump or dump accelerates price action.
Ethereum remains the weaker major
Ethereum continues to look materially weaker than Bitcoin. ETH still has a valid bearish pennant, tested short-term resistance, and is only about $13 away from closing below $1,650 support.
If ETH loses that level, the next short-term support to watch is Wednesday's pivot low near $1,600. The analysis remains bearish on ETH over the weekend because the chart structure is still significantly weaker than BTC.
Dominance and ALT market structure remain fragile
BTC dominance bounced again on Thursday and is moving toward the daily TBO Fast line. Combined stablecoin dominance dropped as BTC and ALTs bounced, but it remains strong bullish with all four TBO lines pointing higher, which means the short-term chop is not yet enough to break the macro momentum.
The more unusual signal came from OTHERS.D, which bounced alongside BTC.D even though the two do not normally move higher together. TOTALES.D also dropped onto TBO Support, and the analysis emphasized that when Support or Resistance moves during a strong trend, the more likely outcome is that the newly formed level eventually breaks rather than holds.
ALT market cap charts show support stress
TOTALES remains strong bearish despite Thursday's bounce and is not expected to recover above TBO Resistance, which was previously support. TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 both saw small daily support breaks, while OTHERS has now produced two recent TBO Support breaks this week.
This keeps the broader ALT market on unstable ground. Even where charts bounced, the analysis did not treat the move as a clean risk-on confirmation.
TradFi bounced on macro headlines, but the repair is incomplete
The DXY dropped sharply after President Trump announced that a US-Iran peace deal was close to being finalized. That move helped EURUSD bounce and briefly pushed USDJPY lower, though USDJPY quickly returned to roughly where it started.
Equities also bounced, with S&P Futures still holding an open TBO Close Long from Wednesday, SPX showing a minor bullish RSI reset, DJI snapping back above the Cloud, and NDX closing Wednesday's TBO Close Long quickly. However, the VIX remains jumpy near 19.43, and several major tech charts remain in bearish consolidation or weak structures.
ALT standouts are mostly warnings, not clean strength
The ALT section remains warning-heavy. XRP printed a bullish engulfing candle, but the drop in TBO Support from 1.34 to 1.09 was interpreted as a sign that the new support level may be lost next. SOL bounced 6% but did not change its bearish trajectory, while TRX is on track to flip into strong bearish mode if it closes below the daily TBO Cloud.
XMR saw major volatility with a darth maul candle, ZEC confirmed a TBO Open Short, NEAR still has an open TBO Close Long, and several sharp ALT pumps looked suspect. ATOM, CRV, PYTH, and COAI all pumped and printed TBO Close Short warnings, while DEXE remains a notable Springboard Bounce watch if it tags TBO Resistance at 22.752.
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